GameSpot: Why do you think the Yankee Group report has the PS3 coming out on top? Kaz Hirai: Different people have different opinions, and at this point in time they're all forecasts. And people make forecasts based on the information they have at hand--their experience with what the companies in this space have done in the past, et cetera. And I think that as far as the Yankee Group goes, they've looked at the information they had at hand. It's generally a very positive report, but you can tell they've done a lot of their homework because there are some things that we need to work on. We've had those ups and downs as far as manufacturing is concerned on the console, for example, and that's being properly addressed. So I think they looked at all the information they have at hand--good, bad, or indifferent--and came to this conclusion. And I obviously think that they did a great job on this report. GS: Now according to their report, by 2011, when the next-gen console market matures, the PS3 will have a 44 percent market share. Do you think that's a fair prediction? KH: 2011 is, what, five years from now? So I really can't say one way or the other whether that percentage is the right percentage. My plan basically is to make sure that we keep at least as much market share as we have had with the PS1 and the PS2. We don't plan on ceding any of the market share to our competitors, especially after the cycle has gone deep. GS: Right. But Sony has something like 60 percent market share now, and they have Microsoft gaining over 15 percent of that. KH: Well, the numbers change depending on how you slice and dice the data. What I'm saying is, given any metric they use to chart sales between 2006 and 2011, or calendar year to date of 2001, whatever you do, when we look back, I'd like to think that our market share will be as good--if not better--than what we've accomplished with the PS2 in the same kind of time frame since launch. GS: Speaking of dates, its three months to the day from now that you guys are going to launch. KH: Correct. Yes. GS: How are things looking there? KH: Everything's pretty much on track. I just came back from Las Vegas where we we're still actually having our internal sales and merchandisers gather for basically four or five days of intense meetings. Everything from retail strategy to talking about the interactives, and how you can reboot it if your power goes out, so everything from nuts to bolts all the way up to the retail strategy. So we're internally really getting geared up to go to market with this beautiful console in three months' time, and at this point in time all signs are good to go. GS: The 360 was plagued by significant shortages at launch. What steps are you taking to make sure the PS3 doesn't meet the same fate? KH: Well, I think that you know this is all relative, but you need to put it in context. I think that we've always talked about shipping 2 million units worldwide within the calendar year. [UPDATE--Sony has contacted GameSpot to clarify the number of PS3s available at the end of the calendar year. The company is targeting 2 million PS3s available at launch, and an additional 2 million by the end of 2006.] Since we're going with three territories, we haven't really come up with an allocation just yet. But even if you do the simple math you're talking about less than 700,000 units per territory, per major territory, between launch and the end of the year. So even if there was some fluctuation--you give Japan more, you give the US more, what have you--you're going to end up with some shortages. So I think that if we've done our jobs right and if we've been able to really have the consumers become interested in this product, then, unfortunately, I think it's going to be very much of a challenge to be able to meet every single unit demand that's out there in the market. That's just a logistical impossibility. Unless we suddenly say, "Well we want to wait until June of next year to launch because we want to stockpile product," I don't think that's the approach we want to take. GS: So is the PS3 already being manufactured? KH: We haven't started manufacturing yet. Some of our ops guys were actually just in China, and also in Japan just reviewing the [production] lines and everything else. But they are, again, preparing as we speak to get the manufacturing going. We've not announced and we haven't set really a specific date to say, "As of this day we're going to start manufacturing." GS: How many games do you plan to have available at launch? KH: That is still very hard to determine. Even looking at our first-party portfolio, from the [Sony] Worldwide Studios, we're looking at what titles are going to be available at launch. We don't want to launch everything on day one, because we certainly want to manage the portfolio, and say, "These two titles need to be launched in December, or this one needs to go in January," just to keep the portfolio fresh. It's also a matter of which games actually have enough polish to go out on day one as opposed to those which could use another good three weeks and still make it within the year, but really become the second wave. I think the third parties are basically doing the same thing as well. As with any console launch, I think the definitive title lineup for launch--and possibly up until maybe the end of the year--that sort of list will probably not be finalized until a month before launch, give or take. I think it's too early to say at this point in time which games definitively are going to be launch titles, and I certainly can't speak for the third parties. GS: When Microsoft launched the 360, they had a "launch window" of about 90 days when so-called "launch titles" could come out. Does Sony have a similar definition of launch titles? KH: No, when I say "launch title" I was referring to more, in this particular instance, titles that come out really day and date with the console launch, or maybe out a week or so. That was what I was talking about as I said "launch titles." GS: So, this week Vivendi Games announced that F.E.A.R. is going to be a launch title for PS3. Will that come out on the same day and date as the console? KH: When I was answering your question it was more day and date with the launch. Source: GameSpot
Not bad, it's important that they iron out as many of the possible bugs with the PS3 hardware before launch, not everything can be fixed, and more issues will arise as they have always done but they're not rushing it out. I really don't see much threat as of yet from the 360 where I am living. Here, the 360 is available but there seems to be nothing special about it that grabbed the market like the PS2 did. Hope the market becomes competitive.
